The HVAC world is in the middle of its biggest shake-up in decades, and 2026 is a pivotal year. From refrigerant changes to shifting tax credits and huge gains in cold-climate performance, homeowners and contractors alike will see a very different landscape after the new year. Here’s what’s changing and why it matters.
Refrigerant Changes
First, refrigerants are entering a new era. In line with federal mandates to cut HFC use, the industry is moving away from older refrigerants with high global warming potential and toward new A2L refrigerants with dramatically lower impact.
For homeowners, that means equipment installed in the mid-2020s may use different refrigerants than what’s been standard for years. While your existing system isn’t suddenly obsolete, repairs that involve refrigerant could become more expensive over time as legacy products are phased down.
New systems coming to market for 2026 will be designed around the next generation of refrigerants, which often require updated installation practices and training but deliver better environmental performance.
Tax Credit Updates
At the same time, many of the generous tax credits and incentives that helped kick-start the heat pump boom are scheduled to change or wind down in the coming years. Some federal and local programs that made heat pumps incredibly attractive through 2024–2025 are being reevaluated, capped, or set to expire. For homeowners who have been “waiting to see what happens,” 2026 could mean fewer or smaller financial incentives than were available just a year or two earlier.
The practical takeaway: if you’re considering switching from a fossil fuel furnace or aging central AC to a high-efficiency heat pump, you’ll want to pay close attention to current-year rebates and tax rules instead of assuming they’ll be the same down the road.
The Ever-Improving Efficiency of Heat Pumps
The good news is that heat pumps and ductless mini splits themselves are getting better every year—especially in cold climates. Manufacturers have invested heavily in variable-speed compressors, smarter defrost cycles, and advanced controls that allow systems to maintain high output and efficiency even when temperatures dip well below freezing.
Where heat pumps once had a reputation as “good for the South, not for the North,” the latest cold-climate models can comfortably heat homes in regions that regularly see sub-zero wind chills, often with a fraction of the energy use of traditional electric resistance backup.
The Mini Split Advantage
Mini splits also continue to gain popularity for their flexibility. In 2026, expect to see more whole-home ductless and “hybrid” systems pairing compact ducted air handlers with traditional wall-mounted heads. This lets homeowners fine-tune comfort room by room, reduce energy waste in unused spaces, and solve tricky hot-and-cold spots that older duct systems never quite handled.
Many of these systems now integrate seamlessly with smart thermostats and home energy management platforms, making it easier to track energy use and optimize settings.
Looking ahead, 2026 will be about smarter choices. For anyone planning a replacement or upgrade, working with an HVAC contractor who understands these changes will be the key to getting a system that’s ready for the future—rather than one that’s already behind the curve.
For advice on where to take your comfort in 2026, contact Kennihan Plumbing & Heating, Inc. today to schedule an appointment with our professionals. We treat your home like it’s our grandma’s home.